Nicky Henderson has Jingko Blue, three times a runner and twice a winner to date. A non-standard prep has seen him eschew Graded action in favour of a Class 3 handicap last time out; he fair bolted up there, seeing his official rating balloon from 124 to 140 in the process. Even allowing for the further progression that leap implies, he still has something like a stone to find with Ballyburn. And soft ground may not be in his favour, though the jury remains out on that score.
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The hood was left off Alcala on latest start, when he was well beaten before falling two out. The headgear returns today but he is a very risky proposition. A final word on the thrilling exhibition by Un De Sceaux yesterday which crowned an outstanding day for Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. Many had been premature in casting doubts over the Mullins yard and the early prices on offer for Un De Sceaux were value – which we took full advantage of.
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“It was great that they thought of me and to win for them was really great. When I sat on her, they publicised the times and we didn’t go very fast at all, so it was very hard for me to say I would win the King Charles III Stakes beforehand off the back of that. “It’s special to be a part of and it’s a very difficult feat to bring her over here at this time of year when it is approaching the Australian winter and prepare her – Henry has done a top job. “It is sublime and some great names from Australia who have won here have trained over 150 Group One winners and that’s only my third. “It’s a good start to the week and he deserved that, he’s been great all year. He’s a fine horse, very consistent and seems to be thriving.
- Decent jumping ground at both with course alterations affecting the official distances.
- Thirdly, cheekpieces have been more about futility than utility outside of handicap chases.
- We have built the fastest cars and bikes but the racehorse is pure nature.
- Willie Mullins naturally saddles a phalanx of blue bloods, and his first choice normally wins.
- Third of the four runners during the early stages, Rebel’s Romance challenged entering the final quarter mile and lengthened up the hill to beat stablemate Kemari by a convincing three and three-quarter lengths.
- But the winning post is not on the home bend and there were no signs of panic from de Boinville, as good a man for the big occasion as there is riding in Britain at the moment.
- So you can know exactly what people are talking about, you should make sure to learn some of the following lingo.
- Average StakeFor lay bets the stake amount is classed as the exposure amount for the bet (e.g. 100 laid at odds of 4/1 is a stake of 400).
- Accessible horse racing tips are what most punters are looking for.
Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 26th Feb 2022
MT – This is a great betting race, as it’s a different test from most of the races through the season and throws up some big priced winner as a result. Only one winner shorter than 11/1 in the past nine years. Favori de Champdou and Affordale Fury are two of interest, but whatever you like, swing win only rather than each way.
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Likely to be at least truly run, and potentially a little fast early; the winner will need to travel and jump at top speed as well as possess sufficient stamina to see it out after the last. For the final segment of this article I want to have a brief look at Grade 1 races. These races comprise 50% of the 28 Festival contests and, in the last 15 years, they have accounted for roughly the same percentage of all the Festival contests (some of the newer races being upgraded during the review period).
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Davy Russell will return to the saddle “in a fortnight or so” after spending 11 months on the sidelines with injuries to his neck and back. Divine Comedy burst out of the pack to chase him down, but the 20-1 chance – who went for 450,000 guineas as a yearling – held on by half a length. Prescott, who won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe with Alpinista in 2022, was saddling just his third winner at the meeting in all, with Wizard King in the 1994 Britannia his only other success. “He’s run very well, he showed a lot of speed early on and the stiff finish just caught up with him in the last 100 yards,” said the trainer. “We needed a lead-up run at Haydock, so she came over early, but just with the changing of seasons we wanted to be here before it was too cold in Australia and too warm over here. We came over in the nice interchange period, and we need not have worried because she settled in brilliantly, and the proof was in the pudding today.
Horse racing tips: Cheltenham, Doncaster, Newbury – Saturday October 26
It was a fourth Champion Chase for Henderson since Finian’s Rainbow broke his duck in the race in 2012 and his 60th winner in all at the meeting. Horses of a lifetime, it seems, are like London buses for the trainer these days and if he becomes the first trainer to win Cheltenham’s big three races in the Gold Cup on Friday, Might Bite might be considered another. A lot more returns and respective debuts throughout the week before we got to the season openers at Cheltenham and Aintree. After all the hard work there was just the one bet for us which was successful. It can be seen as frustrating to have put in all that work but also rewarding in the long term to have amassed a great deal of valuable future information.
Tiger Roll wins the Cross Country Chase
44 of the 54 winners in the sample came from avoiding these negatives, from just 38.5% of the runners. They were collectively worth a profit of 7.57 points at SP, and a slightly more worthwhile 31.15 points at BSP. There is the occasional shock result in Cheltenham Bolts Up Daily Festival novice Grade 1’s. But four, out of 54, is not a percentage on which to hang one’s wagering hat. Interestingly, perhaps – or maybe just coincidence – two of the four winners at 16/1 or longer in the last decade came in the Albert Bartlett.
Ayr Gold Cup Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends
The 39 in the last decade which didn’t were all unplaced bar one. Indeed, horses rated 140 or below, including those without a rating, are a combined seven from 308 for a loss at SP of 185 points. None of the 238 horses sent off at 25/1 or bigger managed to win an open Grade 1 at the last ten CheltFests. Moreover, only three priced bigger than 14/1 scored, from 335 to face the starter, with this group losing 274 points at SP. Meanwhile, those priced at 14/1 or shorter won 50 races from 300 starters, and lost just two points at SP. Chacun was imperious at Christmas, value for plenty more than the official six and a half lengths.
Royale Pagaille – National Hunt Chase – 5/2 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)
She’s the classiest mare in the entries for this race by at least seven pounds, and there’s a chance that drying ground sees Roksana re-routed to the Stayers’ Hurdle. There will still be Concertista to deal with, but Honeysuckle will be more 8/11 than 11/8 on the day if she runs here. If she doesn’t, you’ll get your cash back a fortnight hence.
Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends
Jockeys are important at this meeting, however, and the experience of Rachael Blackmore versus the exuberance of Chester Williams tilts the pendulum in favour of Champion Green if having to choose between them. Gordon’s Britzka and Ebasari both measure up on this ‘interesting rag’ angle but are shorter than ideal to take the chance. The Mares’ Hurdle had been dominated by Willie Mullins almost since its inception in 2008. Mullins was actually unrepresented in that inaugural running, but then went on to win nine of the next ten editions, six of them with the fantastic though only occasionally seen Quevega. However, more recently, the omnipotent Closutton barn has enjoyed success in the Mares’ Hurdle only once in the last five years, and not at all in the last three.
More Australian success in King Charles III Stakes
But he’s no bargain, especially if his jockey – presumably Rachael Blackmore though she has another option – allows others a head start. O’Faolains Boy set a fair but not searing tempo, aided and abetted by Smad Place, in 2016, the beneficiary of which was the handily-ridden Don Cossack. And in 2015, Coneygree made every yard under an inspired ride from Nico de Boinville. De Boinville’s measurement of pace there was brilliant, saving enough to repel a brace of Irish challengers up the hill to the line. In 2018, Native River won from Might Bite, the pair engaging in a ding-dong skirmish from flag fall; in theory, both should have wilted and been passed. This was definitely not a winner I could have found as it looked on paper beforehand that they’d have at it exactly as they did, an approach in this sort of cauldron which typically spells c-u-r-t-a-i-n-s.
All of the last 16 winners had raced at least once since the start of Newbury’s Coral Cup Handicap Chase meeting the previous November. Among the British challengers, Teeshan from Paul Nicholls’ yard showed promise with a victory at Exeter last month, while Ben Pauling’s Sixmilebridge impressed on his stable debut at Sandown. Though primarily seen as a hurdling prospect for the future, Sixmilebridge shouldn’t be overlooked in this race. Willie Mullins fields the favourite, Jasmin De Vaux, who showcased promise with a victory at Naas on his stable debut in January.
30 Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)
This oldest race of the Festival and monument to the Corinthian nature that characterised National Hunt racing for a million years has undergone more nips and tucks to its race conditions than . Brandy Love has been very lightly raced but is a Grade 1 winner at this range, when seeing off Love Envoi who, by contrast, was having her sixth battle of last season. I don’t expect her to confirm the form with Harry Fry’s mare.
Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field. It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week. The first of nine handicaps and I’ll tell you now that my thoughts will be (mercifully) brief. This race has been won by the home team exclusively since Dun Doire and Tony Martin wrested it away in 2006. They actually don’t run many – just three darts this year – and I’ll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly. There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d’Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races.
Let’s dive right into some of the horse racing bet types that might take your fancy. You also have the option of selecting the starting price, also listed as “SP”. This is the odds of the runner at the start of the race, and it will not always be the same as the odds that you see when you look at the site.
Horse Racing Tips: Timeform’s Friday fancies at Newmarket feature a 4/1 play
- Under the conditions of the race, we can see that ‘Led’ (green blob) types have fared best.
- Sorry to ram this home, but if you’re a beginner not prepared to spend a bit of time on study you’re always going to be a beginner.
- Hayley Turner was proud of the performance of Docklands after the pair combined to fill the runner-up spot.
- I suppose the thinking is that Saturday punters will have a bet whatever.
- There are eight races on the card, starting with two Grade Ones, the Novices’ Hurdle at 1.30pm and the Novices’ Chase 40 minutes later.
- Every single race every day can be seen live on Sky Sports Racing (free on Sky channel 415) and Racing TV (a subscription channel on Sky 424).
- Clearly not right when reopposing Jango Baie in that G1 he was pulled up on the soft ground there before beating the geegeez.co.uk syndicate horse Dartmoor Pirate into second at Huntingdon last time.
Log in to your existing bookmaker account when you first open the app, or via the ‘Accounts’ tab. Go to the cards, pick a race and once you’ve made your selection, simply tap the odds button beside the horse you like.4. Our RP Recommends section has plenty of information and offers impartial advice from our experts in order to help know who, when, where and how to place your bet. Competition among bookmakers, particularly online, is fierce, so don’t be afraid to open accounts with multiple firms and if you are betting on course, be sure to shop around the betting ring and bet with whoever is offering the best price. The No Foto Needed service is an established member SBC’s Premium Tipster range and features winning racing tips from a true racing expert. He has not been disgraced since, but the drop back to six furlongs looks a good move.
Of stable form, it can be seen from the right hand part of the chart that the Henderson hordes have not been firing at their highest rate in recent months. Nor, mind you, has the win percentage been anything other than aspirational for most other yards. The Brown Advisory would have meant a likely clash with Monkfish, the Arkle a ding dong with Shiskin, Energumene and Allmankind. The Marsh feels a bit like the coward’s route for a horse boasting his CV.
Despite owner Michael O’Leary’s efforts to quash the hype, SAMCRO arrives with a sizeable reputation and his racecourse performances say that he deserves it. He has won all three hurdles races easily, including a Grade One at Leopardstown, and there is a strong suspicion we have yet to see just how could he is. Vision Des Flos showed the benefit of a wind operation when turning a competitive Exeter Listed race into a procession and should ensure Samcro earns his prize. Black Op represents the team that won Tuesday’s first race and they will have a solid line to novice form. Next Destination finished third in last year’s Champion Bumper here and has built on that level of form over hurdles.
This approach works just as well for National Hunt races as it does for those on the flat, as example 6 perfectly demonstrates. After what has been a circuitous introduction even by my own highly verbose standards, it’s time for the meat. If you’ve got this far, I’m safely assuming you’re at least receptive to the notion that finding bargains is different from – and better than – buying cheap stuff. With that in mind, here are five angles I personally use when trying to isolate value; that is, before striking any bet. Arriving at a selection is also fun, the process taking a good bit longer than the actual event for most ‘serious recreationals’.
It probably makes sense to compare a longer period pre-Cheltenham with a shorter period pre-Cheltenham with performance at the Festival itself. Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a means of applying a sliding scale of merit to every finishing position, and doing it in relation to the field size in which that finish was achieved. For instance, 2nd of four has less merit on this metric than 2nd of 40 – and rightly so, of course. Sizing John in 2017 was trying a longer trip and was ridden accordingly, with patience.
If you don’t believe me, I’ve copied the in-running comments from his six races over fences below. He’s won them all, but that might be something to keep in mind if you’re tempted to pile in at cramped odds. Fell at 9/2 in 2018, when Min was only second as a 5/2 shot, and – worse – 7th in 2017 as a 2/9 chance.
Evaluating the track record of tipsters at prestigious events like Royal Ascot can provide insights into their expertise and reliability. It’s crucial to stay updated with reliable sources to make well-informed decisions when placing your bets. Here you will find our Lucky 15 which includes our Notebook runners (now on oddschecker), the Daily Eye Catcher and Value Tip (also on oddschecker).
Going a step further, I’d favour run style over draw in certain scenarios which I’ll come on to. And I’d especially favour a horse from a wide gate with an ostensibly uncontested lead. A wide-open renewal of this race, but it is still very hard to get away from GOOBINATOR. Donald McCain’s 5-year-old finished 4th in the Cesarewitch behind Buzz at Newmarket last month, beaten 8-lengths and on that evidence, he looks to be exceptionally well-handicapped on a mark of 126 over hurdles. He won under Brian Hughes at Ayr last October, on the same mark as he can race off today and he looks to have a favourites chance.
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Better yet, they may assist in whittling fields to more manageable numbers with a view to poring over the form on the remaining runners. Ignoring the highly unpredictable handicap chase segment, there are some consistent negative factors worth keeping in mind throughout Cheltenham Festival week. 506 of the 964 starters in all-age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles since 2008 have been sent off at greater than 20/1. It may be safe to exclude fillies and mares in all age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles. (Incidentally, fillies have an excellent record in the Fred Winter).
Hence any female running this year at Cheltenham who won last time out might be a horse to consider as a betting opportunity. Epatante has been thumped twice in Grade 1’s by Constitution Hill this season; and then beat a field of inferior mares in appropriate fashion. She’s only run once at this longer distance, when winning the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle easily last season. Her main market rival that day fell at the last as Epatante was looming upsides, but she looked to have had him covered at that point. She is holding her form fairly well and is unexposed at the trip.
Last year’s overall pasting for the home team was reflected in the Gold Cup itself as Irish runners filled out the medal positions, Britain’s top performer being the valiant eleven-year-old Native River in fourth. It is worth further noting that there were only four Irish runners in the field of twelve. With the exception of 152-rated Lord Windermere, who just got the best of a bizarre five-way scrap up the hill in 2014, every other Gold Cup winner since 2007 has been rated at least 164. The average winning rating in that time, bar Lord Windermere, was a touch over 171. With just two months to go until the Cheltenham Festival 2022, thoughts begin to turn to those high class clashes, none more so perhaps than the Blue Riband itself, the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
The table above shows the performance in handicaps of four to seven runners over the last five years. It includes all-weather, flat turf, hurdles and chases, UK and Ireland. Unless there are two or more front-running types in the field, the balance of probabilities is that the race will be steadily run with an acceleration in the latter part of the contest. That suits horses which are able to change gear, i.e. accelerate, late in the play. Many horses cannot, and for these more galloping types, field size truncation is not good. The final component in my facilitation/differentiation quintet is field size.